Delphi and Long-range Forecasting
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منابع مشابه
“Problems of Selecting Experts for Delphi Exercises,” Academy of Management
[//121] The Delphi technique of aggregating the forecasts of a number of experts on multidisciplinary issues/1/ is a recent development in long-range forecasting. By sequentially polling the experts' opinions, interspersed with feedback of information on the just-previous poll to the experts, consensus is generated. Meanwhile, anonymity is guaranteed in the polling procedures so that social psy...
متن کامل"The Selection and Deflection of Expertise in Delphi Exercises," presented at the 1972 Joint National Meetings of the Operations Research Society of America and the Institute of Management Sciences, Atlantic City, New Jersey (November 8, 1972)
It has been claimed that the foundational questions about the Delphi technique of longrange forecasting have all been answered. However, two unanswered foundational questions are considered in this paper. As a problem in the selection of experts, empirical evidence is adduced showing that institutionally sanctioned expertise (e.g. the "professional") in long-range value forecasting is not cost-...
متن کاملThe Delphi Technique An Experimental Evaluation
Much research has been devoted to the Delphi technique. However, very little substantive work has been done on the subject of Delphi accuracy. The purpose of this effort was to test the accuracy of Delphi vs the conference method in making long-range forecasts. College students were used to form Delphi and conference groups that predicted the point spreads of college football games far in advan...
متن کاملHybrid intelligent system for Sale Forecasting using Delphi and adaptive Fuzzy Back-Propagation Neural Networks
Sales forecasting is one of the most crucial issues addressed in business. Control and evaluation of future sales still seem concerned both researchers and policy makers and managers of companies. this research propose an intelligent hybrid sales forecasting system Delphi-FCBPN sales forecast based on Delphi Method, fuzzy clustering and Back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks with adaptive learni...
متن کاملPrediction Markets versus Alternative Methods. Empirical Tests of Accuracy and Acceptability
he success of prediction markets in the field of election forecasting made them increasingly appealing to organizations and a number of companies started to experiment with them. However, despite widespread initial interest and years of experimental use, there are no major organizations known to use prediction markets as an integral part of their forecasting activities. Prediction markets have ...
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تاریخ انتشار 2003